17–18 Dec 2025
Centre for Particle Theory
Europe/London timezone

An Uncertainty-Anticipating Kernelised Framework for Conditional Goodness-of-Fit

18 Dec 2025, 14:00
30m
Ph8 (Centre for Particle Theory)

Ph8

Centre for Particle Theory

Speaker

Aidan Mullins (Newcastle University)

Description

The work of Sir David Cox and Halbert White is dedicated to the poverty of Maximum Likelihood fits under model misspecification, including poor data quality, as well as the necessary remedial, complex regularization. A literature on an alternative to Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), has developed over the last seven decades. Recent contributions mathematically prove MMD’s ability to handle misspecification without regularization. I present a framework for assessing a MMD-fitted model’s predictive capacity without requiring the separation of data into testing and training sets, with novel contributions found in resample-free configurations of the framework.

Author

Aidan Mullins (Newcastle University)

Co-authors

Prof. Chris Oates (Newcastle University) Dr Markus Rau (Newcastle University)

Presentation materials

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